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Your recent visit to the United States? Wall Street side of the how?

AlexBarrett Standard Chartered Bank is the global research department of the No. 3 man, the customer research division, in charge of global research department of foreign exchange, fixed income, commodities and the Middle East studies. He is very familiar with the market, the United States and the current global credit market is very research. -- In Beijing for the debt crisis of the exclusive interview he has done. Economic Observer: Your recent visit to the United States? Wall Street side of the how? AlexBarrett: I visited about six months ago, I and many people in that conversation, I have four chances to see the United States market. I would like to say this is the beginning of the end, but it is not the beginning of the end. About three weeks ago, the credit spread to a very broad level, now appears to be gradually narrow. But this does not mean that the rapid recovery may only be brought about by panic cautious. People know that they sell on credit to all things, but now there will be a choice of what is good and what is bad. Economic Observer: You mentioned in the report of the United States will be a long-term recession, you mean the crisis will continue a few years? Why make such a judgement? AlexBarrett: I think perhaps the recession itself will go to the third quarter of this year, but the entire 08 growth of 0.5%. Such slow growth is likely to last several years, consumers need to re-establish confidence in a few years time. IMF data showed that the growth in the United States this year, 0.5 percent next year may be 0.6%. Economic Observer: In your opinion, when the debt crisis to the bottom? American house prices will eventually decline? AlexBarrett: I think the United States of the debt has caused a lot of damage. These real estate mortgage prices are unsafe, particularly some of the debt triggered the department. These sectoral issues will affect the quality of the collateral and a house, even if a person has good credit history, nor trust, it will damage a lot of money. I think prices will not soon return, now 10 per cent lower soon, I think the next one is likely to peak dropped 30%. Economic Observer: China by the impact of the debt crisis seems to be little, in your opinion, what are the reasons? China's capital is not opened items will not withstand risks? AlexBarrett: the debt crisis affecting American consumers. Every day we have a lot of losses, the business community will be inhibited, credit cards and consumer far as to the impact of deep. All the losses add up to almost 1.5 trillion US dollars. Data issued by the International Monetary Fund last week said that the debt is the loss of almost 945 billion US dollars, but we think it is 1.5 trillion US dollars. This may affect the safety of Chinese investors, we would like to be, may not be great, only a small impact. Meanwhile, the United States in reducing the purchasing power of consumers, particularly in some important cargo. China is relatively good exports to the United States is not the most important is not the greatest. I think 20% of China's exports to the United States, but not all of these will be stopped, but some will be discontinued. This means that this would affect 20 per cent of the exports. Finally, I would like to maximize the impact on China's stock market is. When the dawn of the crisis, the transfer of money from the West to the East. We want to where the "insulation", and only by a little bit of influence. So I would say that China is not the insulator. Economic Observer: In your opinion, when the depreciation of the dollar to the bottom? AlexBarrett: I think the lower dollar will continue, but the middle will be resumed after will continue to lower. Why am I not saying the dollar will be dramatic recovery, when we see that the commercial market will not say that dollar will resume. If we look at China, the renminbi has been on the rise, 15%, the target for this year is 6.35%, and will continue. Economic Observer: China is now faced with the danger of inflation, and you have any good suggestions? AlexBarrett: I would like to revaluation is very helpful, there are many factors which will lead to inflation. One comes from the daily necessities, on the strength of the currency is helpful. China and there is a huge flow of money, if rectified would create a large number of domestic consumption. This is a good thing, not only on the economy, and the people will be very good. Economic Observer: What do you think the future will be a currency war? AlexBarrett: interesting is that before people are willing to devalue its own currency, so they tried to let the exchange rate is very low. Now we think is in our access to world markets, the purchasing power it will become so poor. The next potential war competition currency Who is more purchasing power of the currency. If the international oil price rose, goods prices rose on the strength of the currency will become more favorable. Historically, the United States is so. Now the world is re-balance the world economic structure is being converted from west to east. Some countries are on the rise, use a stronger currency market access