China has no Ba-Fei-Te, Maotai mythology end can shatter.

It is loyal to thank country: Have lacked in theBa Fei the two important elements in.

銆€銆€
Ba-Fei-Te for Chinese is not strange. Recently, his name appears more frequently. Because of many persons they when the success of Chinese the stock market, is since have utilized the wisdom of Ba-Fei-Te.

銆€銆€
Has China really arisen the investor of more and more Ba-Fei-Te types? Are you new and high for such reason to make market wound happen? I think deeply , get opposite answer for a long time. It is actually in speculation to think a lot to imitate the person of Ba-Fei-Te. The stock market of China is being in the fanaticism of foam and excessiveness, this is the market that Ba-Fei-Te would not most invest in.

銆€銆€
The lesson

銆€銆€
Many persons send its wealth at present in this ship

銆€銆€
Great investor needs go through the trial of time. Ba-Fei-Te has created the profit level of annual 28% in his a lifetime, this is equivalent to , increase 11.8 times in 1910 or in 30 years, increase 1645 times. I knowledge some throw

銆€銆€
In the bull market that capital person begins from 2005, have gotten 6 times to the profit of 10 times. In so short time, getting such repayment do not be easy very much, but this can not become them Ba-Fei-Te. Their achievement may come from skill , may also come from luck. In fact, some powerful evidences show , their success benefits completely in tendency of the market, luck, instead of the investment skill of individual. So, the money gained come quickly , have to be also rapid.

銆€銆€
In 1997, it is blazing that the building city of Hong Kong of the stock market floats on red, investment atmosphere. Seem everybody to jump into the stock market or building city , somebody can be seldom absorbed in daytime to work. Have person do not have no to envy land say with me

銆€銆€
" take typhoon time, can fly even as pig. " really, many persons become very rich , are at least so at that time. But the pragmatic person of Hong Kong spends the money that they earn , is on the thing of famous-brand clothing etc. , do not mind boost self is Ba-Fei-Te. Though everybody understands when such market investment is roper dancing, but have no person to believe that foam breaks when is present.

銆€銆€
At that time, somebody can seldom think of , safe Zhu the collapse meeting of such a kind of less important currency Cui collapse entire bull market. Safe Zhu Beng plate has caused "dominoes" effect. The bank of Japan is Southeast Asian important creditor, they lose heavy, asset liability table in this economic crisis to shrink considerably. They are also the creditors of Hong Kong, after crisis outbreak 5 months, they begin to withdraw capital from the market of Hong Kong.

銆€銆€
The stock market of Hong Kong begins to slump to the summer arrival bottom of 1998 years in the fall of 1997 years, right now permanent raw index already higher point falls 2/3. The price of real estate has been declining in one year half, when the high-tech foam of 2000 years after experience momentary recovery, is again declining continuously, up to 2003 SARS period just Chu base, amount to to fall reaches 75%.

銆€銆€
Foam shattering has brought huge pain to society. In whole generation, the person of Hong Kong grows up in bear market, in the future, it is a and dim in their eye. They when own thought finalizes the design of trend maturation in age, experience asset price unceasing shrink.

銆€銆€
This makes them dare not emit big risk in a lifetime. This is why the current building of Hong Kong city still shows mild in various fanaticism, price is equivalent to half of the former crisis level of 1997 years only.

銆€銆€
Market turn on the contrary very slowly. Developer has to make a discount secretly to sell. Have only the section in the concentration of banking industry, the price of real estate has just arisen obvious rising. This is actually the part of global mobility foam, because of foam make as

銆€銆€
Rush fund and personal raise stock right investment fund strengthens quickly. These funds before when earn the first piece of money for their investor, will take 2% of administration fees first, this income the room of the street that makes them live price fierce rise.

銆€銆€
Chinese

銆€銆€
Similar story possibility is some cities of China occur. The stock market that soars and the market of Hong Kong before decade are astonishing and similar. City in spread investment constantly certain stock Bao rich mythology. In which, it is Guizhou Maotai by a stock discussed at most. A legendary typical edition is: A retired person the save of having him has bought Maotai stock , now is become into billionaire. Maotai stock estimate value high level make person Za tongue, its business also because the prosperity of the stock market enlarges the wealth that the - - rising of the stock market brings effect has increased to display for 50 years to make the demand of Maotai.

銆€銆€
But what I a little feel uncertain is that actually having how many 50 years to display the Maotai wine made? Actually them when "the Cultural Revolution" no quilt red guard destroies? However, so long as having plenty of funds to pursue eagerly, the mythology of Maotai will be continued.

銆€銆€
Ba-Fei-Te also becomes the part of Maotai story. Story is spoken so: It is first, Maotai is the famous brand of China; It is second, Chinese likes Maotai; 3th increases along with economic development and wealth, people can consume more and more Maotais. So, according to the principle of Ba-Fei-Te, should hold this stock for a long time.

銆€銆€
But story hasBa Fei the two important elements in. The basic principle of Ba-Fei-Te is when suitable priceGood company and.

銆€銆€
Also have doubt for the demand of Maotai wine. A most of Maotai demand are to come from reception official. When a kind of merchandise quilt government in official appearance afterwards, its price will Biao liter, because of businessman can stint no effort cost land purchase it. However, Maotai belongs to high wine. Drop in global scope, as far as the consumer already continuous 20 years of healthy reason and high wine is concerned. China also meets to face this tendency. Until the doctor warns the time that officials do not have Maotai wine again , sees the price of Maotai again. Though Maotai has a good brand, its value still depends on company for the future whether unceasing adjustment self with the change that meets market taste. Its future and not picture the most investor now is so safe and reliable as thinking.

銆€銆€
Money can change person. I pay attention , new Bao

銆€銆€
About the former, I finger not is ordinary to have tea, and it is to discuss tea like French discussion wine. It is good that this has no what, but this has brought true influence really to market, Chen Nian Pu Er the spurt in prices of tea. You will not contact the stock market and the price rising of some tea perhaps together. But you can see , when the foam of the stock market breaks , general Er tea price can move towards what side.

銆€銆€
Buddhism is the another subject in great demand. The very spiritual demand of rich person has no any harm, but it has caused Buddha as the price of etc. merchandise goes up. When seeing that so, numerous person possesses rare Buddhist goods , I can think unavoidably: Are these things in where before?

銆€銆€
Ba-Fei-Te

銆€銆€
Except tea and Buddha, discussion Ba-Fei-Te is most fashionable. Before geting rich , people will not mind whether wealth comes from legacy or lottery ticket. But after geting rich , people hope that other persons believe , they have is because of own special ability. Naturally, those people that clean out in the stock market to gold depict own story get like Wo-Lun-Ba-Fei-Te.

銆€銆€
Somebody really because of intelligence and wisdom get rich , but the most persons is luck good - - by chance when correct time enters city. But I can not believe , have person have accomplished Ba-Fei-Te so.Chinese the stock market.

銆€銆€
First, let us come to see that investment shows. When stock right after minute puts reform, last certificate Zong finger reaches the bottom of 800 to 900 point probably in 2005. Is from that , this index has risen 350%. Such expression, partial reasons are that new share had been fited on the market on first day into index calculation. In second half of last year, government has changed this kind of practice. Additionally, because of the stock of new publishing large scale state-owned enterprise in index very, authority values possession, present index before and two years have greater cannot than sex. So, it is many that your stock on hand may have no rising 350%, I estimate that profit level is in 200% probably.

銆€銆€
If market rises original 3 times a lot, high risk stock may rise more. For instance, it is larger that thin price share( smallcapstocks) usually rises in bull market, at the same time fall in bear market is larger. This kind of stock is called as Gao 尾 to worth stock.

銆€銆€
Coefficient is the relative fluctuation range of a stock relative to entire market. Mature market thin price share coefficient is around 1.5 probably , that is said, their fluctuation wants big 1/3 than market. The result of my crude guess is , Chinese thin price share value has exceeded 2. Therefore market rising 2 times, them can rise 5 times.

銆€銆€
The investor of many Chinas likes to brag their earning rate. Because they usually hold thin price share, if since they from 2005 profit exceeds 500%, they run , have won market. If hold the stock with higher risk, their profit is even higher. Therefore high earning rate does not signify to invest in expression well. Get relative to market overall higher profit, also undertake the relative risk with larger market whole.

銆€銆€
And value relative should is value. Is pass through good choose share strategy instead of increasing the profit that risk level brings and exceeds market average level. For instance, if two steel shares when same estimate value level on trade, clever investor

銆€銆€
Can select quality better any. It is false so as Japan, the expression of this stock will be better than tendency. This kind of excess repayment is. Many as rush fund claims self is creation person, so, take higher administration fee( such as 2%, average level is 0.5%) divide with profit( the 20% of investment profit).

銆€銆€
Fact goes with this is very far. Recent academic research shows , as rush the good expression of fund major is not because role. For instance, many as rush fund concentrates investment in the thin price share or emerging market and heavy goods in great demand , these departments show strong under macroscopic tendency, this belongs to is a kind of. However, somebody thinks that fund manager has selected correct profession, therefore their expression not only comes from luck. The debate of this respect will be still gone down continuously, but in any case, their expression and have selected well company's relation is not large, this just is essence.

銆€銆€
The investor of China borrows Ba-Fei-TeThe method of Ba-Fei-Te is.This kind of method usually excludes. For instance, the method of Ba-Fei-Te when high-tech profession is not very useful. It is rear that apple company purchases 5 years ago by Qiao Bu Si, its stock has risen 10 times. This is completely because he creates the ability of outstanding new product. The method of Ba-Fei-Te can neglect this aspect. This is why Ba-Fei-Te has missed 20 century for 90 decade the share prosperity of science and technology.

銆€銆€
Ba-Fei-Te method the stock chosen rises normally more steadily, instead of is more rapid. On the contrary, the investor of China is fascinated in the share in great demand. People recommendation stock to the goal price that happens usual have in one year multiple rise , this is nearly impossible to become the goal of a Ba-Fei-Te type.

銆€銆€
The stock of China is often to rise well badly in unison regardless of quality to fall in unison. The stock in market always is changing continually, the method of Ba-Fei-Te the rare land used force. China Merchants Bank is the rare example that can bring repayment continuously for shareholder with the department of 10 thousand. Occupation the state-owned enterprise of market more rely on government policy realization profit. Since seeing for a long time, it is very high that this kind of government protects the risk of profession. Private enterprise usually relies on certain founder , if this person leaves because of some reason, company can fall into difficult condition very quickly. These characteristics make Ba-Fei-Te method be nearly impossible to be suitable on the market of China. This is why many investors speak with confidence like Ba-Fei-Te, at the same time carry out is short line operation.

銆€銆€
銆€銆€The method of Ba-Fei-Te lies in to realize. This needs have the mature market of a numerous stock company. American the stock market has near 10 thousand stock company. "the Second World War" afterwards, American economy never still go through depression( GDP negative growth exceeds 5%). On the contrary, American economy nearly goes through one depression in 19 century per decade. Then, it is Ba-Fei-Te , is hard to also succeed. The huge stability of economy has given Ba-Fei-Te rule the opportunity that plays role. On this meaning, say that he is also to have delivered to transport well.

銆€銆€
In a word, I doubt at the moment for Ba-Fei-Te's heat discusses is the outcome of bull market. When foam shatters , will not have how many persons again to mention him. When Shanghai A share exceeds at 2500 o'clock , Chinese the stock market has entered foam state. Foam also has its natural life-span, it is driven by the psychology of person. It is possible that a foam of the stock market lasts for 3 years, and can let price/earning ratio exceed 60 times , is also the 4 times that estimates value level normally.

銆€銆€
Chinese investor regular foam breaks to intervene with government to contact, think so long as government does not intervene , foam may exist forever. This is wrong. Foam can break by oneself. America is so in 1929 and Japan in 1989. Hong Kong Beng plate disturbs by outside arouse, the share foam of science and technology can excess because of producing , break in 2000. You do not know forever what is foam meeting to break , but they can always break.