Currency great decisive campaign - - international hot money will start asset foam new round of charge number to China

Do you hear " concentrate

Is hot money the bugle of withdrawal? January 28, certain world throws trip report speech chisel: Show according to EPFRGlobal data, overseas Asian fund withdraw capital scale former place does not see , and in which, Chinese fund flows at most , has reached 1100 million dollars. As the Chinese capital market of " the world expression of last year best ", in this year, will become the Asian investment market of " most do not get favor ".

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Not! It is just opposite, what I hear

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Frankly speaking, need not mind above-mentioned report, first, if be all right really, can penetratingly perceive the future, it will not also suffer in loan crisis to inflict heavy losses on , does not still get rid of "bankruptcy" so far or has been taken over risk. 2 comes , it is market comment person , and is investment main force , has white face public opinion to do to leave empty, red-faced fund copies the double stand conflict of base possibility. World throws trip is in China , do not lack to sing air country building city , lift to build the precedent of storehouse.

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" genuine red Bao Xue alarm " is , January 31 dawn, America unites to store up lower interest again urgently 0.5%, 8 days is former, America unites to store up just lower interest urgently 0.75%, this makes U.S. dollar standard interest rate decrease 3% rapidly from 4.25%.

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Does this

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One and U.S. dollar become December and the 11, of 2007 years " undertake the currency of interest rate" without dispute, American CPI is 4.3% and 4.1% respectively, and still storing to know expand on trip tendency. Therefore U.S. dollar links the nominal ability " protect value" as international reserve currency to lose. Cease and appreciate high currency will receive is hotter to catch up to hold, heavy goods will also become fund refuge, especially gold.

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2, RMB has been high for U.S. dollar to cease currency. 3 years ago, the U.S. dollar 5.25% of interest rate is higher than the RMB( 2.25%) 3% of interest rate, U.S. dollar is high breath currency. May since the RMB of July 2005 remits to alter , with RMB, add breath constantly, U.S. dollar succession reduces breath, RMB becomes on the contrary high breath currency( the current 4.14% of interest rate). What trouble more is that according to " some international authoritative experts " prescription - - RMB acceleration appreciation and add breath constantly to reduce domestic mobility - - grabs medicine, domestic mobility overflows on the contrary more, CPI is from remit to alter pretty rush in the same month on ideal 1.8% recently new Gao 6.9%. Its result as the author warns again and again: Appreciation adds breath connivance international hot money to speculate China, " straight interest rate" is the honey sugar on deceiving nose tip!

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3, RMB appreciates more quickly for U.S. dollar. Since the beginning of this year, because of U.S. dollar active devaluation, together with domestic some force, push fast appreciation with full attention, January RMB exchanges U.S. dollar have appreciated 1.59%, convert into annual appreciation 20.84%. Change speech , even if RMB does not add breath, U.S. dollar does not reduce breath, speed does not accelerate RMB appreciation. So long as now, changing U.S. dollar into RMB to flow into China, even if having bank, in one of year, profits also has 21.98%! And it is lost that this kind of profit causes Chinese resident to have money to" undertake interest rate" just!

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4 and past two months, though U.S. dollar lowers interest considerably, but euro, pound sterling and Yen , Rui is light , Ao the major currencies such as Yuan exchange U.S. dollar do not create is high, this signifies that countries center trip been showing special prowess , devotes full attention to avoid that this currency of home made goods appreciates further. Only only when Chinese RMB is still accelerating appreciation.

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A speech so as cover , so huge arbitrage opportunity even if the most stupid international hot money also heart knows that stomach is clear! Hot money also definite when unceasing acceleration Qian enter China, save tendency to treat hair! In 2007 in second half of the year, the acceleration of Chinese true foreign exchange reserve ( in calculate enter throw company's purchase capital and raising U.S. dollar forces capital reserve ) increases 436.6 billion dollars , is the 1.63 times of first half of the year of 2007 years; 2007, the annual actual increase 702.9 billion dollars of foreign exchange reserve is 2006 respectively , the 3.36 times and 2.84 of 2005 years - - increases so considerably can only slip into explanation with plenty of hot money. It " hold salary fire fighting" that the more ample proof first judgment of last year made - - RMB accelerates appreciation to solve international balance between income and expenditure. And RMB accelerates appreciation and succession to add breath , only hot money are speculative and unceasing , domestic the stock market and the building shelf of market price and CPI alternate to create high fountainhead.

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However since last year mid-October,

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It is 3 that reason has: 1. Former this asset foam rises too rapid, market has to return pressure regulating force; 2. For speculation heat money strike biggest is , share finger futures could not put out in keep with one's wish, they control the ability of market to still dislike deficiency; " the Hong Kong's share vehicle of straight line" could not be achieved what one wishes , they profit to change , is hard to now realize fast from site. 3. State-owned stock reduces hold and start an undertaking board batch puts out provide expectation with a huge sum of stock that increases hair also let market bear pressure.

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A share falls the wise person who has so become the domestic and international speculative capital of short period strikes back recruit - - in order to retreat to enter , borrow problem to play , hiting sternly to press share point. It is two that its purpose has: 1. Coerce shareholder interests threat decision-making layer abandonment macro-control, even as attempt to influence the financial arrangement of the senior level of personnel matters so as get further influence the ability of policy, it is convertible to strive for the RMB freely floating and capital project of exchange rate as soon as possible, most not Ji also want to make share point at futures and" the Hong Kong's share vehicle of straight line" put out in this year before Olympic Games, so is have pushed last certificate index arrive high do empty( Na is the rear crisis of the Olympic Games ) creation at 8000 o'clock more again condition; 2. Even if the goal of the former can't reach , also may when the low position that controls at 4000 o'clock builds storehouse Chinese the stock market, may also share the accomplishment of Chinese long-term sustainable development. Two will hold one of which , are profitable.

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Therefore it cannot be deceived for present momentary false picture that macro-controling cut , quilt heat money public opinion controls , turn especially very quickly, puting out share to point at futures and Hong Kong's share straight line. If this two policies enact rashly, will open to save tendency for a long time hot money gate, when U.S. dollar continuity reduces breath, it is taken off that RMB accelerates the coordination of appreciation, A share index must be rushed on astonishing speed , may be made in short 1 or 2 months recently high, may even assault at 8000 o'clock. If want to adopt measure to pull back before it is too late , again then, will repent too late.

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Deeper layer hidden trouble is , some factors of non economy, can not remove to appear at the time that China would not most see. Thus we need to estimate complexity and the arduousness of " currency great decisive campaign " fully.

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At crucial time, China should be with tit for tat: Stop RMB appreciation resolutely , strengthen capital project control strictly; Use the competitiveness of the board promotion Chinese manufacture of business founding; Adopt all strong measures control last certificate index when at 6000 o'clock following, when at 4000 o'clock following, protect a plate of fund to enter city firmly; Official folk increases gold reserve massively. If it is so, China will surely win this currency great decisive campaign.

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It is outside that each investor can not stay matter , for investor, my suggestion is , last certificate index is close the more buy at 4000 o'clock the more to enter , is close the more sell at 6000 o'clock the more, at the same time buy into gold futures( the proportion of earnest money more than 20%) as rush risk. This is the best investment strategy of the sharp country Li-Ji-Li market of 2008 years! ( author is newspaper vice-editor-in-chief, investor decision-making risk is conceited, contact postbox ztb6666@tom.com)