Interview for"
Problem 1: " currency war" have put forward one very let the concept with startling person - -" financial oligarch", or call " international banker". Seem from this one the elite group with very little scope, have controled the industrialization history of entire 300 years. For example, " Luo Si cut Er De clan ". Is this true? Here, has surface big conspiracy really?
Answer: The person who has done stock for currency problem knows that conspiracy is inevitable. Banker when pull liter a stock time, make money , which have do not play conspiracy? And it is for domestic finance , international banker, stock is a plate of pickles simply. How to choose in always stock, from low point, entering and arriving have counted high, how to pound it, then, how to pull again to rise , pull how many wave bands , earn how much money, they are perfectly clear as calculating. You know stock only , are to know that is all to be the person of village, have no do not play conspiracy. And international financial home is the big banker of international currency, why do you do not play conspiracy probably?
Who will say that this
As to this kind of conspiracy whether go to this kind of degree that Song Hong Bing says. I feel that suspect tentatively for those things of drama. But conspiracy is a necessity. In 1994, the president Clinton just assumes power , one of American Wall Street" horse son" come to China, speak the lesson of futures , have said a word," Clinton is the horse son of our Wall Street". It is spraied that you use Henan words in other words to call disorder , northeast words are suddenly You. But he has so said , is to have detected American the president surely and finance big crocodiles some subtle relation.
Fictitious economic aggregate has far exceeded the economy of material object, however Fou influence and the discrepancy of financial capitalists and the capitalists of industry and commerce, it is also so big. Not definitely. From Iraqi war discovery,( Qiao good general collects ) petroleum intervention and the role of interests group will be larger than financial interests group. In international financial interests group, it has dividing line. They are also staggered of each other, who when certain momentary issue influence is big, may become leading. The capital interests group influence of material object is also pretty big.
Rope Luo Si no matter block pound sterling, or adding fuel to the flames in Southeast Asian financial crisis, which does not use conspiracy? Let in fresh air every time , put empty who , pour into fund , until withdrawing capital some time, - - has disposition , is conspiracy! And battle is the same, soldier does not be disgusted to pretend , financial capital and petroleum capital thoroughly understands certainly" deceitful road".
But they are not Gods, seem everything when their palm controls. For example, in a war and the Second World War, they may get biggest interests therefore because of having this strength, even since war both sides profit. " currency war" say , war both sides as if two act as go-between puppet, financial home is behind" the hand cannot see ", it is so serious to can not arrive.
French government carries out bank nationalization, Luo Si cuts Er one of virtue clan France encounters to inflict heavy losses on. This explains , banker with government rich Yi time has victory or defeat mutual. This complete story, intermediate have a gap. Just like finance home has gone to 200 years, until today, have had no person to be equal with them. It does not be so completely.
After all, political power is also pretty powerful. There will be control, but it is conspiracy more. Between they mutually mutual use is inevitable. The influence of home surely has finance, conspiracy also surely exists. %26 <60; %26 <60;
Problem
A important incident on financial history - - lays mines to pause forest system disintegrates , the U.S. dollar after and gold thorough unhook has begun to exceed the history of quantity publication. Song Hong Bing thinks , from 1971 the U.S. dollar that overflows like flood, is depriving the money of world-wide countries workers quietly. Does this problem how to be treated?
Answer: Lay mines to pause forest system establishment, U.S. dollar becomes strong tendency currency, win at that time with America as the Second World War the identity of person relevant. He at the same time still has powerful economic strength , therefore then can establish as the credit of international currency. At that time, U.S. dollar has not become settlement yet currency,( Qiao good general collects ) but all have begun to have accepted like, think that U.S. dollar has "gold" credit.
As lay mines to pause forest system disintegrates , this and international finance snobbery relevant, they are to push hand behind. They is more rapid to profit , can not let gold trammels own trick. Will so remove U.S. dollar chew son, let it become to unclothe reins wild horse. %26 <60; %26 <60;
Problem
Song Hong Bing thinks , Fang city and the stock market of China as if a pair has been blown fast " big two foams ", " hot money" enter through various regular or non regular channels, it is big to blow foam , thrust it again to break. Investor as if have been cooled when the dried fish on sandy beach the same quilt" set jail". For this, do you how to see?
Answer: The foam of China the time that has not still arrived most seriously. The Japan of same year, in 1988, telecommunications and telephone company's a company's market value are equivalent to the sum of market value of German the stock market. Now, it is so serious to sink yet, but Beng plate is sooner or later. Have currency will collapse. After fighting against one time, mark has risen 2000 times, after Russia alters system, ruble rises 200 times.
( the asset market of China) sink
RMB may exchange process freely to accelerate , hot money flow continuously to enter , Chinese meeting is faced ( foam collapse) this day. But if financial market improves , economic ability strengthens , the possible influence that gets will not be also too big.
Will know leak when where. Lesson and the experiences of Germany and Japan are worth for us to refer to. System and the experience of Germany our worth-while thin research. It is Japanese to appreciate , the lesson that dozen is pressed by America will be drawn.
Chinese biggest problem is not known too for the rule of western financial game , lacks many talent of this respect. First, should study rule , is to participate in establishing rule next. Institutional innovation, establish rule, is to make money.
Now comes to see , Chinese economy whether possible quilt heat money beat , like country mainly hold a plate of hands, whether enough wisdom and is clever. ( Qiao good general collects ) strength we are reached , rope Luo Si transfers do not come 1000 billion dollars, even world-wide financial , come to deal with China , they also want reach a kind of common recognition. It is so? Possibility is not large, it is deep that China will not offend whole world.
But a shark of quilt bites bleeding, it is had that other shark crowd follow quickly into this possibility. They smell raw meat and move. To avoid this situation. Can not expose wound to shark. Financial system can not have leak.
You will have plenty of financial talents, these persons must want to have financial consciousness - - a kind of is that alert reply others plays conspiracy for you, another is the ability that you will have conspiracy , plays and opposes with others.
No this kind of consciousness has not had the specialized
Problem
When U.S. dollar and euro, Ya-Yuan of future
Answer: Temporarily, do not talk about Ya-Yuan , do not participate , do not do. After euro appears , has arisen many problems. A currency whether strong tendency besides, the solid strength except self financial capital, sovereignty powerful is important support. U.S. dollar is strong tendency currency, powerful American national power is the most effective support. European economic scale and America pretty but have no powerful sovereignty, can not so become really picture the strong tendency currency as U.S. dollar. Euro can not very form thorough challenge for U.S. dollar. Their inside is hard to be coordinated very much.
If propulsion is inferior and first , necessity is met the circumstances similar to euro. Between Asian country, historical accumulated rancour has not been solved , carry out this currency forced between, unified currency and the sovereignty that not unified ,( Qiao good general collects ) necessity fight. This is a kind of in-fighting, at external competitive time, the cost paid out has high error. Should have the aid of the impetus of Chinese economic continued rising , drive forward the RMB of strong tendency, become unitary strong tendency RMB - - becomes international settlement currency.
For example, help the country of neighboring
Should substantiate own economic strength - - Chinese prominent emergence is not to rely on resource , is not to rely on energy, Russia nearly leans petroleum completely, Middle-East country is also to sit on petroleum U.S. dollar. China should become manufacturing large country and the genuine economic large country of material object , becomes bigger in terms of both size and influence.
Why does China increase continuously? All person pawns China a country has seen , the period of take off the economy of 12 years. Chinese economy is not a country, our country( economic scale) is equivalent to a lot of countries. Does a pearl triangle carry a not last Southeast Asia? A long triangle, do you do not go to 2 or 3 South Koreas very?
The strong point of regional currency are the abilities that scatters risk. Crisis has come , he will not fall completely, will share on RMB the body, Yen and Han Yuan. But what is harm? Have restricted Chinese economic and our sovereignty. Sovereignty meeting and currency fight , have increased the cost of economic operation virtually. , as having common currency, there will be common restraint, at the time that will come to think of own trunk , will be restrained by this one tie trick.
I suggest to not do Ya-Yuan. Let
Problem
The devaluation of how
Answer: Paul Kennedy has sung to decline America, have gone bankrupt. But I think , since then( this kind of theoretical bankruptcy even in one minute) America begin to have declined. If say that the more war is a mid-term adjustment, Iraqi war is finally splendid. American feels by oneself ,( Qiao good general collects ) why world does not like us. American policy and government are very disagreeable. American common people picture big child.
America must hit Iran. Two parties are hostile to very much for" shameless country". Petroleum interests must want to defend. It has again , strikes euro, must let capital reflux America. Otherwise regular project is deficit, capital project also deficit, do the foreign debts of his 3 and the 100 million of 40 thousand how to be returned? America must rely on capital reflux. If world is of Bureau of Economics, surface is prosperous, so has no capital to go to America. International economic environment is not good , " hot money" will be run toward safe place. If America can hit to win war , America is safe, capital will run to pass.
It is world-wide, it can be made money that only American battles. He battles as if drive sheep crowd is the same, it is to make confusion , drives capital. Hit the situation of bad other place , cause capital to take out to flee , will run away toward this American safe place naturally. As if a bank, the person of more American needs stores money with it to go. Hit Iran, if war is capable, U.S. dollar can go to winner continuously.
If little Bush can not be completed , the Democratic Party can still hit. " America battles pattern " - - war pattern, it is to shake to fear and fear , will soon hit , B1, B2, B52, 6 hours of input battle, global arrival lives in the control of flow direction of international capital quickly. American economy most needs , it is not the economy of material object. Is picture control flood the same control international capital, so, it has reached. It not needs you, transport how many ton coals, the stones of iron mine and petroleums, what he needs is capital. Entire America needs capital flow to enter.
But armed forces battle , make local war , drive capital, capital supports armed forces - - this game again may play very much do not turn. If war disadvantage, capital can not flow to America according to the wishes of America, fund chain once break , the trouble of this country is big.
I think that" fiery god sends "( stand for war to send , it is ultra-right, hawks ) after 1910, can stage a comeback. Dozen develops vigorously the banner of America again , carries out unilateral war and whole world to oppose. Arrive at that time, is final one in America rushes at to gallop.
So, say that RMB must maintain strong tendency! Until that day of American decline, who replaces America? Euro has congenital deficiency,( Qiao good general collects ) Yen see do not come out. RMB is possible. China should become the first economic aggregate of world in the future, and your currency is not the strongest tendency , that is very ridiculous.
Today, if we do not prepare to do tomorrow, tomorrow, may become fact. The country with a biggest economic aggregate, currency is soft currency. China is now in urgent need of plenty of financial talents. %26 <60; %26 <60;
Problem
Disadvantageous U.S. dollar has possibility is another conspiracy? Using first to world economic water flooding the U.S. dollar of overflow blows other national economic foams , is big, withdraw in suitable opportunity, other puncture national foams, let capital reflux America, do you cause strong tendency U.S. dollar to maintain its hegemony continuously?
Answer: This is that one sees the train of thought of problem. But key depends on that the problem of America that is faced with is what. He the current development of the economy of material object is not developed very much, industry is hollow. Make money to lean two things , financial capital derives tool and high technology. In the industry of low end begins to change the line of production to other countries. Whether American this kind of economy sustains , it is rear that the foam when whole world shatters , whether may you take over these capitals , become new engine? I not quite value , have no good tendency seemingly. Does this become realistic? Still see development. %26 <60; %26 <60;
Problem
Person suggests , China should establish the currency
Answer: This is castles in the air. Because current currency system and U.S. dollar are bound originally with these important resources together, these things are U.S. dollar marked price originally. And U.S. dollar unhook, however it liter or fall , if the time that is beneficial to you what to be done? Moreover, bind with resource together, American is in side , other it will not do ,( Qiao good general collects ) arrive to resource price on day, hit again, this one he can do. Eventually, it is still ourselves to suffer a loss.
Most basic, you must have powerful economic strength and military power. You can know regular, established rule. You then can profit. Any unitary trick can only be solved one o'clock, it is long term to can't see.
China should have more close relation with America, with Europe, it should also have more friendly relation, it then can be from it biggest to profit. Self ties the abandonment of high limit. Defend the Third World, this may become propaganda , but does not become national policy. The thing that does not go to support mistake lets own interests be damaged.
We have put forward" 3 old strategies".
Second period of strategic opportunity of China been spreading out. America wants to just go up Chinese row after a lot of problems of Iranian, euro etc.. China is on position , gets typeset from now on on the name list of American primary strike. This is opportunity. Do not shout foolishly to go front row. In some aspects should the support of limited degree America. Those no reason put on a rival show have no necessity.
China has no necessity and U.S.
Problem
" currency war" become trendy in on the contrary as the professional book of finance and economics to become " popular reading matter". But also have hostage Yi its academic level and actuality, think that this is out of date conspiracy theory however. Do you how to appraise for this?
Answer: Somebody says that this book has long had got in the West, however, ten person has intelligent tooth , need not so pay attention. I think that this is not important. Why? As relative to western developed country, everything of China starts to compare night , we know the conspiracy of international financial circle , have what should not? Can not know because night does not go. Is general knowledge for foreign country , we do not have no necessity moreover? Scientific biography is more late into China,( Qiao good general collects ) electric light , airplane also is afterwards matter, this can influence us for it interest? Do you do not do? Must know!
After conspiracy theory appears , international banker hits through the media that they control and purchase to press conspiracy theory , does not hope that people peep their broken secret. Should say that the very conspiracy theory is the person of discussion conspiracy that dozen has for pressing that international banker and its trumpeters make , is used to assign others mouth specially. Last year, somebody attempts to expose the mystery of various magics, result is international go up all magic teacher to get up jointly, attempt to assign that person that kills to attempt to reveal magic acrobatics. All business has trip rule , you can not say our secret. This is very similar.
Shelf Lin Si Pan will just go to America to unite to store up chairman , convenes first meeting , announces a discipline. " Mrs, uniting in America in the building stored up , we may discuss everything , can not discuss U.S. dollar merely ". Namely, the most key secret links the person who grasps this secret to do not want to go to discuss.
Some economists discuss the tone of this book, a little ache too grape. Now, many economists are that porter of western economy has no view of any own originality just however. They take western theory that becomes theory of type somewhat and includes scheming to discuss on the contrary , prevent us to be for the knowledge of conspiracy , is this what behavior? It is to plagiarize that you do not criticize him, Song Hong Bing is come to by "translation", this book still has great value.
Chinese needs are awakened , have no this consciousness do not become. The error that says some, this is detail , is not important. What is important is that Chinese must have enough knowledge and alert for the conspiracy of western financial circle.
As to international financial capital
In financial capital running process, conspiracy has no not when, have no place not when. They should go to know stock really. It is those to hold a plate of hands, daily sleeping and eating are not installed ,( Qiao good general collects ) polish to use how many hands may hit this dish, as if battle is the same, the conspiracy and wit that is filled with. In this Chinese emerging market hold a plate of hands is self-taught, may so do , the western bankers that say always and have played for more than 200 years, can you be clean on the contrary? This implication is , it is dirty that Chinese plays financial hand, it is clean that the West plays financial hand.
When you face those financial killers, ordinary people can't feel that they are killers. A member of criminal offence, eyebrow bone is low, expression in the eyes is flurried , can be seen on appearance; And financial killer is not to rely on strength to kill a person , but is to rely on mentality, he may bring the eye of golden silk side , has gentleman demeanour very much. Person cannot look appearance.
Somebody still emphasizes that will comply with international financial rule. But they whether know , the very rule contains conspiracy. In those years, Japanese is to comply with rule, is given by American and have put in order. International practice and rule have conspiracy also. Somebody is very innocent , thinks that is all to become regular thing, not when is conspiracy. He does not know , this usual practice, from beginning is for a conspiracy.
The popularity of this book is very important. When all think , at the time that surface has risk with finance, condition is different. Before, somebody cries out wolf has come , people will think that he is telling a lie , does not mind; Now, know that there is wolf , that has person to cry out " wolf for in not far place ", this kind of voice will get attention.
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Appendix:
Do good to the
1. Do good
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Sharp bad trade( CarryTrade) denotes a country that leads from low breath to borrow into currency , is then thrown through the conversion of the market of foreign exchange for the another currency of home made goods turns to the high profit asset of this country, such as bond or stock. Doing good to difference the plenty of appearances of trade have increased international financial market fluctuate considerably, and U.S. dollar / Yen exchange rate becomes the index as the compass of the stock market more. Since Japan is economic to decline , Yen standard interest rate is in long-term low level, Yen becomes the major currency of global sharp bad trade. Shake money technique: Expose the newest operating tendency of main force
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Since after last century the asset foam demolition of Japan of 90 decade, economy always collapses after on setback , Japanese center president in order to come to carry out the super low policy of interest rate directly. Under such background, borrow using low interest Yen, then, use Yen exchange U.S. dollar again , Ao the high currencies of interest rate such as Yuan and euro so as get interest difference, or put in fund the option markets such as global stock market, the market of crude oil and Jin city, after geting high profit, exchanging Yen again still loan , become a kind of way that Japanese domestic and international investment organization and personal investment home get profit. Shake money the technique intelligent terminal of finance and economics
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The major currency interest rate on present world minimum is Yen, the standard interest rate of Japanese center trip is in 0.5% , and the major currency of highest standard interest rate should be New Zealander currency, the standard volume of interest rate is in 8.25%. The difference of interest rate of such big discrepancy has offered profit space to do good to bad trade, doing good to the risk of bad trade the risk of exchange rate of being Yen for other currency exchange rate. The same day at the time that Yuan appreciates , the fund of sharp bad trade will be withdrawn , goes back to fund to return to Japan , because of Yen if continued appreciation, carry out the organization of sharp bad trade can have exchange loss. The same day, first stage appreciation is completed , enters devaluation stage , is sharp and bad to trade and begins to go on. If can the tendency of stage assurance Yen, doing good to difference trade , can not only earn investment profit, return meeting the profit of earn Yen devaluation stage. But huge sharp bad trade fund not only makes the market of foreign exchange become to fluctuate more , and makes the financial market of whole world( the stock market, debt city and merchandise) fluctuate more. Rope Luo Si 97 years when the Asian financial crisis that causes is the successful case of typical sharp bad trade. Www.topcj.com
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2. Do good to the
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2.1. The influence of
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U.S. dollar / Yen exchange rate and the permanent raw index of how we will come in this year make a contrast to see Yen exchange rate give birth to index for perseverance have a influence, we select this time part of recent 2 years to come to analyse. In permanent raw index 2 years, the tendency picture of tendency and U.S. dollar / Yen exchange rate of 2 years is expressed respectively in Fig.1 and Fig.2. We count the Yen every stage of exchange rate high giving birth to index with perseverance to worry every time to fall adjust the place of beginning to make the comparison on a time , list relatively as a result with form form in Table 1 and Table 2.
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2.2. U.S. dollar / Yen exchange
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With identical method, the stock market for America analyses , we select to cover scope more broad mark 500 general indexes to carry out analysis. Mark the tendency picture of 500 general indexes, as Fig.3 shows. For the stage of this some Yen rapid appreciations, mark the expression of 500 general indexes, as Table 3 shows.
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In marking the analysis of 500 general indexes, we have discovered same law , are to appreciate beginning from Yen , the stock market occur fall urgently, also in S stage, mark 500 general indexes have not appeared too big fall to. Global economic integration makes the correlation of the expression of every stock market more and more high.
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3. Scale is gradually
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3.1. Japan has offered currency
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Since Japan has gone through the economic foam of 90 decade, afterwards, is economic to collapse after on setback , the particularity of its economy is a tool that world sharp bad trade has offered very well. Every investment bank can for reduction fund cost, is fund source one after another using Yen. Since Japanese excuse domestic price has not risen , would not add breath lately, what continuity maintains the zero policy of interest rate and U.S. dollar, euro and the rising of pound sterling to form distinct contrast is , Yen appears to accelerate the tendency that is declining. So, Yen always acts as the role of " world borrows money machine ", the Yen of low cost the important source land that makes Japan become international speculative capital. As estimating , now, activism comes from Japan more than the speculative capital of Asian national the stock market has 1 / 3 probably, scale when hundred thousands of 100 million Yens, these capitals is thrown mainly to the stock market of the country of emerging market. Along with the improvement of Japanese economy, Yen appreciation has obvious tendency. In the middle ten days of February 2007, the report issued points out wild village bond, the Japanese degree GDP growth rate of four seasons is as high as 4.8% , is far higher than the expectation of previous 3.8%. It is strong to export , company's service price index go up considerably. These datas have moved up investor further for Japanese center trip add breath to expect. Investor worries about that Yen and the sharp difference of foreign currency turn on the contrary, so these speculative capital plenty of refluxes go to Japan. Huge fund floating necessity arouses the strong concussion of the capital market of host country, together with these national the stock markets, it has the requirement of inner adjustment, the stock market appears under multiple factor role to slump , exceed to fall. Dominoes is poured , the global blood of the stock market flows out river. These speculative capitals as if rush the robber inside the shop of porcelain wares, they are few as taking , are many as smashing. Japanese the stock market can not be also had a narrow escape , the arising of this kind of circumstances source in two aspects: On the one hand, it is the countries lack coordination of monetary policy, on the other hand, the monetary policy of Japan does not be taken the responsibility. Current reality is , if Japan maintains the interest rate of 0.5%, it is not large to not change or add breath range, it will still have plenty of Yen arbitrage capitals to loaf about in Asian market, especially emerging market. Low cost Yen capital will become local the fuse of or globalness financial crisis.
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Sharp bad trade is the important reason of global mobility overflow, the unbalancedness between currency makes market speculative profit space change big. IMF is for statistics of international idle fund , 20 century the in the beginning of 80 decade international capital of short period is the 100 million dollars of 30 thousand, until 1997, base increases to the 100 million dollars of 72 thousand , is equivalent to the in those years global 20% of GDP. , since 2001, each major economic body of whole world has carried out the super low policy of interest rate generally, global mobility nearly overflows. America unites to store up for recover economic increase , lower interest beginning from January 3,2001. 9-11 incident afterwards, America unites to store up to lower interest pace accelerates. It is lowered interest that from January 2001 - June 2003, America unites to store up process thirteen times continuously, reduce the federal fund 6.5% of interest rate to 1% , and always maintain June to 2004. It is lowered interest that European center is all right from the priority four times of 2001 years, and maintain interest rate in 2%. Is July 2006 in 2001, Japanese center trip always maintains the interest rate of short period in the zero level of interest rate. Comfortable monetary policy causes major economic body currency circulation to increase substantially. Since 2002, global currency growth rate is higher than 10% every year , even reaches 25%, and in the year of global GDP of the same period, growth rate keeps only, is in 2%-5% , and this gap is still enlarging. Is current, international market goes up only as rush fund has more than 8000 , contract holds the asset of the 100 million dollars of 10 thousand. International market floods the trick hot money with huge quantity and mysterious whereabouts. The international spurt in prices and global the stock market of heavy goods go to ox as well as some burgeoning countries to arise currency financial crisis etc. , is concerning this all. Have better to shake money to you to your ready source of money technique
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Should convection moves sex excesses , restraint is coherent to rise to occur, since 2004, major economic body begins to walk to enter plus cease period. But coordinate since lack is international, as well as economic atmosphere is not the same, each economic body level of interest rate has greater discrepancy. America unites to store up continuous seventeen times , raise federal fund interest rate. European center trip raises interest rate from the priority six times of December 2005 , is from the raising of 2% to 3.5%. In July 2006, Japanese center trip breaks through zero interest rate, but it is 25 that adding breath basic point have only. On February 21,2007, Japanese center is all right to announce that add breath again, interest rate is still 0.5% only. But historical experience shows that once American domestic monetary policy turns to high interest rate from low interest rate, emerging market is easy to break out currency financial crisis very much. Because between major international currency( U.S. dollar, euro and Yen) the currencies of some countries of emerging market and as well as major international currencies existence certain profit to differ from. Speculative capital seeks difference constantly between countries currency, through arbitrage, get profit. And some certain country domestic monetary policy arises change, for example raising, interest rate and speculative capital can be plenty of to sell the national currency of emerging market, buy back this currency , so cause finance to be upheaval. The research of some scholars still shows , currency financial crisis when the crisis infection between developed country and developing country has unidirectional feature: When financial crisis appearance when developed country, developing country has become crisis Xie flood district; When entering crisis, appear in developing country, developed country nearly does not get any influence.
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3.2. Science and
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In Japan, since life cost is higher, to relieve trouble back at home, the ordinary general metropolis of common people is used in surplus money , is necessary to deposit and purchase national debt. However, enter new century, a kind of picture buies thing in 24 hours of convenience store is the same, the trade system that passes through the company of " the trade of foreign exchange of earnest money( FX trade) " at any time , carry out the trade of foreign exchange to get profit manage money to invest in way , the sharp bad trade that also equates in speculative fund is quick and popular in Japan. The statistical data of Japanese arrow wild economic research institute shows , 2003, have set up the account of FX trade to be approximately frequently 2800 households, market scale( deposit fund) also has only 8700 million Yen, until March 2006, account number increases to the household of 330 thousand , has increased 118 times, market scale also extends to 380 billion Yen , has enlarged 44 times. " the trade of foreign exchange of earnest money( FX trade)", and ordinary fund investment difference is in: Consumer may utilize multiple or tens of times in the fund of the amount of earnest money with certain fund as earnest money after seting up account in FX trade company in FX trade system, carry out the trade of foreign exchange, from it, get profit. Say, own reserves are 100 thousand Yen , use this 100 thousand Yen as earnest money, so, may use the fund of the U.S. dollar of 10 thousand to do business.
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FX trades to invest in way , may use except having to be higher than capital( earnest money) multiple even the fund of tens of times goes on the advantage of investment trade outside, can still at the same time get the opportunity of the double profits of interest difference and the difference of exchange rate. Additionally, this kind of trade way is restricted by time, all-weather 24 hours may exchange the 8 kinds of foreign currencies such as U.S. dollar, pound sterling, euro, Canadian first, Australian Yuan and Swiss franc at any time to do business , and need to pay according to trade volume to incorporate few trades and exchange service charges.
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At present, China can also carry out the trade of foreign exchange through doing the website of city business abroad, trade some difference is very low, low is to 4-6 , and no service charge even not needs even as cash, the tool needed is a international credit card only, the lever that offers is as high as 200 times.
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3.3. Do good to the
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, in now, do good to the influence that bad trade is hard to still cause for the financial market of China too , after all, RMB can not be still exchanged freely. The speculative fund of sharp bad trade can only enter Chinese market through underground channel, but relative to other country and region, amount is limited. The fund volume of QFII in stock market the market of degree for China is still limited. Though, sharp bad trade can not still directly influence Chinese the stock market, but international stock market is , with Chinese stock market unite to move sex begins to strengthen , if international stock arises frightenedness in market to sell , the confidence of the investor of China can also get strike and arises frightenedness to sell. Eve " black Tuesday" such as famous February 27,2007, exactly Feng Japanese center trip announces that adds breath 25 basic points, will old loan interest rate( the interest rate of short period) go up tune is to 0.5% , express Japan will still raise breath mouth continuously to restrain international fried home borrow money behavior. Japan does not act as low interest rate even zero interest rate " borrow money machine " role, force to borrow in large quantities the international investment organization of Yen must level storehouse, steam again fund, in front of when have held high the stock market, this kind of fund pull out of have had got enough profit space. Additionally, the influence of loan crisis to China of America is very little, however when the stock market round the world slumps condition take off, January 22,2008 Hu deeply 300 indexes a disaster that does not also flee.
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4. Use the U.S. dollar
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4.1. The U.S. dollar
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Fund and the activism of sharp bad trade are gradually huge as measuring , the important power that makes it become the rising of the stock market. When U.S. dollar / Yen exchange rate goes up , the stock market is usually in rising orbit , however have time this kind of change of exchange rate is not quite obvious. Such condition explains , international speculative organization is borrowing from Japan, then sell in large quantities into Yen in the market of foreign exchange it is taking conversion as the currency of speculative goal country, so on the market of foreign exchange, it is weak that Yen overflow makes Yen go. Right now, speculative organization can not only earn the profit that is all right on the stock market, Yen devaluation also makes them produce exchange profit , has formed a benign circle actually , attracts more speculative capital to enter. At this time, the down risk of the stock market is less, systematic risk is less.
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4.2. U.S. dollar / Yen
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Even advantage is bad, trade can also make it accelerate to be declining while promoting market rising. When U.S. dollar / Yen exchange rate is declining , as the stock market, can appear to fall urgently, this is since speculative capital is plenty of to reduce the risk of exchange rate on stock market to level storehouse , locks profit, take out fund to return to Japan for Yen money goes on flat storehouse. Under this kind of condition, U.S. dollar / Yen exchange rate is declining general comparatively rapidly, this is the result of vicious circle. Market once begin to arise the flat storehouse of sharp bad trade, the exchange risk and risk of the stock market form the risk of speculative organization together , make speculative organization risk enlarge quickly , force them to level storehouse quickly, lock profit. Shake money technique: It is stratified to enter successively to choose share law
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4.3. Judge
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Sharp bad trade has increased the fluctuation of stock market, we must guard against the risk that brings from this. From second festival we give birth to index for perseverance and mark the analysis of 500 general indexes may find out , the change of exchange rate usual first the change of the stock market, general exchange rate the stage of the stock market changes direction before seeing top beginning from 10-20 day, explain that speculative capital has begun to pull out of market. This has given us the time of making judgment , we should notice more when U.S. dollar / Yen exchange rate changes direction the systematic risk that fund flow brings , make happen proper as rush , will soon put out Hu deeply 300 index futures have also offered a cost for us cheap as rush tool.
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The 4 QDII funds of the major investment market of Hong Kong of the base publication of last year when the casualties of Hong Kong are heavy, exactly Feng they build storehouse period do not plan with U.S. dollar period of the / Yen urgent liter of exchange rate suit , have become speculative organization finally profit tool. If they can use to derive tool prompt as rush systematic risk, can reduce loss.
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Hold a plate of
" when Hu deeply 300 fingers futures put out early stage, the fluctuation marked may be great , there will be many arbitrage opportunities together with base bad benefit, can catch these opportunities is institutional investor mainly. " 51 eves, when gather together the bond circle senior personage of the Taiwan region of Hong Kong " share points at futures investment really engage in skill training class " go up , Taiwan treasure comes bond tactful Dr. of chief adviser Lijinsheng of research and development centre name.
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5 arbitrage
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He expresses that according to the trade condition of puting out in 1998 that Taiwan TWSE adds right index futures , the trades of hedge and arbitrage take 50% probably each, in which, arbitrage is to point at the price discrepancy between futures using stock on-hand stock and share to catch the opportunity of profiting mainly. If futures market price deviates theoretical price, also, the range that deviates exceeds trade cost , produces arbitrage space.
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Taiwan treasure Shuo the financial general manager Joint Stock Limited Company of science and technology Huang Jian Hua is taking a true trade of its operation as example, have analysed share to point at the entire process of futures arbitrage strategy.
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December 1,1998, Taiwan adds right index is at 7102 o'clock, Taiwan adds right index futures is at 7335 o'clock, have at two hundreds and twenty-three o'clock straight price difference, existing to do empty futures do the arbitrage space of many on-hand stocks.
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Huang Jian Hua claims , walking first is establishment the stock combination on-hand stock of arbitrage. Taiwan adds right index, have the stock samples more than 600 to establish such one to make up , must select the stock with big weight in index composition share. Taiwan treasure Shuo have selected 46 stocks at that time, the arbitrage trade amount of money emploied is the New Taiwan dollar of 7540 thousand Yuan.
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It is second to walk , institutional investor wants the cost needed by estimate arbitrage. This cost one is trade cost, pointing to purchase share point at the service charge of futures and on-hand stock; 2 is market impact cost, point at reality and the point of observation of investor to conclude business price bad etc. and the time drop between point.
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It is 3th to walk , observation instant march into the arena opportunity. In this step, will calculate instant price bad case , deduct the instant index on-hand stock with instant futures price , calculate instant arbitrage space and remuneration rate.
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4th step is to operate only after
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It is 5th to walk , observing immediately flat storehouse the opportunity of coming on the stage. Right now, it is the case of increase and decrease of price bad case, the combination position on-hand stock and the position of home office with instant reference mainly , futures position contract and other futures month the trade of market and the price bad case of unifying entrustment single quantity and conclude case.
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According to its introduction in, this case, Taiwan
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Arbitrage
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Li Jin Sheng claims , it is the / point of 50 Yuan of New Taiwan dollar that Taiwan adds right index futures, now Hu the deeply 300 prices of the RMB / point of 300 Yuan that points at futures, per some price, can hinder the participation of personal investor high.
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He claims , lacking the share of private investor point at the trade of option market, will not be active , this is unfavourable for institutional investor, because organization is nearly impossible to gain money in a market of not active mobility, go down for a long time organization also does not be willing to trade in such market.
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Is natural, this is the one of risk that institutional investor may be faced with. On this training class, Hong Kong remits pool bond and futures company's director general manager Dr. Zheng Han Jie sums up these risks , is 4 aspects.
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First is futures settlement price. Along with share, point at futures date due to be close , the share and index on-hand stock finger futures price should tend to gradually is consistent, but if futures settlement price does not be equal to the index at that time on-hand stock, arbitrage will have risk. And this kind of not uniform condition has appeared in the permanent raw index futures history of Hong Kong repeatedly.
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The 2 of risk is , the stock combination on-hand stock that institutional investor buies in will not be all composition share, select only somewhat have the composition share of representative as well as high weight as a combination , reflect the expression of index. But if this combination has no , can reflect the expression of index correctly , will have great arbitrage risk.
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Zheng Han Jie claims that because of option market and spot market, minute belongs to two markets, it is probably different to fall to stop the trade regular design of board etc. , this makes the possibility in arbitrage trade be faced with risk.
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Finally, a risk is the fund of plenty of arbitrage needs. Hu deeply 300 fingers futures are daily according to the settlement of market price, market goes up if appearance unfavourable condition, settlement organization can catch up receipt earnest money, therefore institutional investor must have enough fund to mend storehouse , will be forced to level storehouse otherwise.
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Zheng Han Jie reminds institutional investor, share finger the instant 10 thousand of option market changes , there is huge arbitrage risk, it is nearly impossible to accomplish that relying on man-days only avoid risk, must rely on arbitrage systematic software to avoid.
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He claims , share finger the program of futures arbitrage trade, from instant information systematic, arbitrage opportunity reconnaissance system and computer the supplementary single systematic software compositions such as settlement and risk management system.
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For example, through arbitrage opportunity, reconnoiter system, investor may basis input system hold cost and trade cost, the degree of simulated error, the prompt quotation of on-hand stock and futures, find out arbitrage opportunity , and pass instruction to single system in time to trade and estimate arbitrage profit.
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