2008年2月26日星期二

Cross swords: Sino-U.S. economic war shows shape

On July 17,2007 Chinese

Responsibility

China and the United States between rich Yi now may follow the East China Sea " go up Zeus shield " no relation, with the military strength that America arranges in all parts of the world, also have no too big relation yet, but it has involved aerial engine from beef export , extends from trading field to currency financial field.

銆€American technology:
Since the national investment company under planning of foreign exchange scolds capital 3000 million dollars, has purchased the American stock of dark stone group approximate 10%, American senator lucky Mu - Wei cloth now delivers letter American wealth length to protect Er Sen , American earth safe minister and chairman examination Ke-Si of American bond trade committee cut Er hold husband, claiming China purchase American dark stone group stock may bring threat to American national security, ask dark stone group to postpone to appear on the market.
Wei cloth says in letter, the record of American bond trade committee shows that dark stone includes being in the asset of group with army and grasp satellite technical relevant company, should prevent therefore that China takes advantage of this grasp these technologies. It must not be exported for China that American Department of Commerce has still announced the American high-tech product for the 20 big kinds such as China export control list, aerial engine, advanced navigation system, laser instrument, underwater video camera and propeller recently, America new for China high technology export control begins to carry out immediately.
The friend of American Department of Commerce tells the special reporter " the finance and economics round the world", American this time high-tech export control name list has passed the coordination with many around one years and bargain. Control name list is concerned with 20 kind of, 31 clauses. This 20 kinds of product includes: Aerial ware and aerial engine, inertia navigation system, laser instrument, optical fiber, poor uranium, underwater video camera and propulsion systematic, advanced composite material as well as high-tech communication apparatus. It is to defend protection and the interests of American exporter for " American national security " to get job that American long ancient Tie Lei Si of Department of Commerce issues statement to say that enact these measures. The American 18.3% for that China high-tech product export takes in those years Chinese high-tech product import total of 2001 years, and this proportion falls to 9.1% until 2006. Here America restricts in all because of export have lost the volume of trade of the 100 million dollarses more than 700.


American beef:
After the Sino-U.S. strategic economic dialogue of late May finishes , America has not only refused that Chinese side asks to import the requirement of high-tech product, the president Bush has still issued recipe with full interest for Chinese.
He says for media: " Chinese needs edible American beef, this is helpful for them, Chinese likes American beef very much. " is in America , agriculture had been regarded as to have one of industries of international competitiveness. American beef industry takes the 1/4 of the total sales of agricultural product , is the biggest department in agricultural field. American beef produces per year quantity to reach 8600 thousand tons , in which, 780 thousand tons is used to export. Before Chinese the Ministry of Agriculture issues import prohibition, the American beef of Chinese annual import worths general idea around 4 to 500 million U.S. dollar, and American beef annual export volume is on 3000 million dollars. The data of United States Department of Agriculture shows that China is the second big beef consumption market of whole world, the consumer beef and 7050 thousand tons of ox viscera of 2005 years.
In December 2003, America has report to say that have discovered mad cow disease. The global countries more than thirty that include China stop immediately from American import beef. American government expresses that will enlarge the quantity scale of inspection. Though as this, the quantity of its detection ox only for annual handling the 1% with 35 million ox totals. American government when is in the process that China socializes , looking is when try everything land weaken "mad cow disease".


銆€銆€" Bao stir-fry
On June 13, chairman Bao Ke Si of the American Senate committee of finance and economics shows in, the newest RMB motion of exchange rate " the standard that has offered many differences , make any a American Finance Minister hard looks but sees not under the existent condition of deviation ". Shu Mo senator shows: " the old control definition of exchange rate existence great explanation flexibility, current definition scope is very narrow, very strict. " new motion will the foreign currency possible appearance of exchange rate " deviation " the two kinds of dividing: A kind of is the "deviation" of generality country; Another kind is since related government adopts obvious policy measure , causes the basic deviation that exchange rate arises.
Motion thinks that need to adopt for the latter" prior action". Basis motion limit , so long as arising the 1 kinds in 4 kinds of following condition, related country can be limited to need to adopt " prior action": Adopt a direction in the market of foreign exchange , long-term, large-scale intervention; Over accumulate foreign exchange reserve; In view of the purpose of balance between income and expenditure and for capital receipts and payment, make restriction or offer encouragement; Other any when American Ministry of Finance may seems cause the American policy or measure of " prior action ". Washington wisdom storehouse Peter Sen the uncle shelf grown by research institute this gallop " offer advice to offer advice " is of real benefit. He suggests American official and private financial institution to purchase RMB secretly , pushes the country inflation rate of high school, is under the economic atmosphere of Chinese reality , China will select to accelerate the method of RMB appreciation to solve to know eventually expand problem. We do not know above-mentioned strategy whether put into effect , but when excess to speculate capital fall out to stir-fry take off, we see Chinese room really price steep liter, grain, meat and egg skyrocket, see some officials the 3% of recognizing CPI increase safety zone from world has extended to 6%, have no a America to throw trip expound a international common recognition " CPI increases to exceed 5% is galloping inflation ".


China: I will
American Ministry of Finance announces on June 19 up to April, the American total of national debt that China holds is 414 billion dollars , has decreased 5800 million dollars than the 419.8 billion dollars of the end of March. In the statistical data of near 1 years that Ministry of Finance offers , this still Chinese first time appears to reduce the condition of holding beautiful debt. In fact, this is since RMB remits to alter reduce for the first time hold American national debt, at the same time, also reducing since being for 7 years hold biggest one month of scale. Soon afterwards, the earning rate of the American bond of Ministry of Finance flees to rise. The earning rate of the American bond of Ministry of Finance is the company's debt had by whole USA , derives the foundation of article contract as well as stock price, it will raise great disturbance in financial market if its liter of least bit falls. American Ministry of Finance and Wall Street and all British-U.S. media of finance and economics when close attention China for American debt reduce hold. American wealth length protects Er Sen, America unites to store up chairman Bo-Nan-Ke uniting with America store up former chairman shelf Lin Si Pan, show immediately after news is announced , Chinese side reduces hold American national debt will not form threat for American economic safety, because the beautiful debt scale that China now holds is equivalent to the American trade quantity of market one day of national debt only. And market personage understands , it is talked about that this is relieved for them to be saying for politicians.
According to the data of American Ministry of Finance, up to the end of April, it is second that China holds the American total ranking of national debt. The personage of familiar market says for reporter, " on financial market, what all pay attention to is tendency, Chinese action holds the large country of the second American total of national debt, it is the direction of market for the very attitude of U.S. dollar and U.S. dollar asset. Therefore China has no necessity at all to sell national debt in large quantities , takes a fraction only to sell , has shown that intention and world financial market will be seismic. Though, bond price is declining , can let Chinese foreign exchange reserve shrink , however U.S. dollar devaluation also is always reducing the actual value of Chinese foreign exchange reserve, only the Chinese awkwardness of the former, the latter Chinese side takes the initiative. More moreover the bond promotion of earning rate the possible impetus of containment U.S. dollar devaluation. Besides, China carries out capital to control , the influence that gets is less and more than America. " after the news that China sells American national debt spreads , the industrial index of Dow Jones begins to be declining considerably, America new for China technology export control same day begins to carry out , the American routine vice-minister gold of Ministry of Finance dense fly specially to go to Beijing spread out consultation. Shrink constantly besides, because of U.S. dollar devaluation, to avoid foreign exchange reserve, China announces in this year that sets up a national professional investment organization of foreign exchange reserve, investment scope includes whole world high profit bond, the stock market and real estate even personal raise stock right investment fund.
According to estimate, the Chinese investment company of foreign exchange start fund scale is around 200 billion dollars probably. In this year before Sino-U.S. strategic economic dialogue convenes , vice-premier Wu Yi has shown clearly, " America disregards completely the huge progress that China gets , Chinese side is willing to keep to the end. "

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